Autumn chill hits UK retail footfall as school holidays shift, weather worsens, and consumers urge caution pre-budget

Retail footfall across the UK dipped slightly by -0.6% in October from September as a shift in the school half term holidays spanned over the final week of October and the first week of November combined with a month of inclement weather conditions. This was particularly prominent in retail parks and shopping centres where footfall dropped by -1.3% and -1.2%, respectively. High streets also witnessed a decline however this was nominal at only -0.1%.

The return to office is high on the agenda for many businesses and last month may well have seen this strengthen, particularly in towns and cities across the UK as high street footfall rose by an average of +4.3% from Wednesday to Friday when compared to 2023 levels versus declines in retail parks (-1.9%) and shopping centres (-0.6%). This may well be a sign of the return to office strengthening steadily.

Compared to last year, footfall trends across all UK retail destinations followed a similar pattern falling by -0.6%. While retail parks witnessed a rise of +0.8%, shopping centres and high streets saw declines of -1.5% and -0.8%, respectively. Much of this is likely be derived from the final week of the month which recorded a -3.5% decline in activity overall. Storm Babet’s impact on footfall recovery last year appears to parallel this October’s dip, reinforcing a broader return to seasonal normalcy despite the ongoing economic situation. While this year’s footfall figures align with historical trends, it’s important to note that consumers may also be remaining cautious ahead of the Autumn budget being announce on 30^th October as well as November which observes Black Friday where shoppers may be able to grab some festive bargains.

October saw consumer confidence fall by one point which takes us back to the same level we were at in March this year. This drop was led by perceptions changing around the general economic situation over the last 12 months and as the Autumn budget approaches, it’s clear to see consumers are waiting eagerly before considering any significant purchases.

With Black Friday less than a month away and Christmas following shortly behind, retail stores and destinations are likely to see footfall rise as we head into November. In the second week of October, MRI Software’s weekly ‘Insights from the Inside’ poll* revealed that 68% of retailers had noticed consumers already starting to shop for Christmas while 66% remain optimistic that footfall will be higher in November this year compared to last year. However, London is set to face tube strikes and overtime bans from 1^st to 16^th November, adding further strain on London’s transport network. MRI Software anticipates the drop in footfall to be much more modest ranging anywhere between 1%-5% week on week especially as overground rail services and the Elizabeth line are still expected to operate as usual. London’s buses and cabs are also expected to run normally which will further mitigate the severity of the tube strikes taking place as commuters within the city will still have alternative options in accessing high streets and other locations within London.

Staying prepared is key for the critical months ahead. Retail leaders should be embracing the data they have on their stores and wider portfolios to prepare accordingly – in terms of staffing and operational management, as well as upcoming lease renegotiations – as we enter a season renowned for weather disruption and engineering works on public transport networks.

* A weekly survey of over 700 store managers which provides insights from the shop floor around how external factors and consumer behaviour are impacting both footfall and spending.