Following today’s release of ASDA’s figures for the 3 months ending 30 September 2025; Aliyah Siddika, retail analyst at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, offers her view: “ASDA’s Q3 FY2025 performance marks a deterioration from the grocer’s more moderate sales decline in Q2. Total revenue (excluding fuel) fell 3.8% to £5.1bn, with like-for-like sales down 2.8% in a quarter when we estimate the UK food & grocery market grew 2.7%. ASDA is underperforming the overall market, and we anticipate its market share will fall a further 0.3ppts in 2025 to 8.8%, narrowing its share gap with discounters. ASDA’s sales performance in recent weeks has improved from Q3, but the grocer does not expect to see a significant improvement in its position until mid-way through FY2026.
“Project Future, intended to modernise ASDA’s logistics and operating model, disrupted the core business in the short term. Issues with stock flow between depots and stores led to inconsistent availability on shelves, with online shoppers hit particularly hard. Simultaneously, the launch of a new app and website in August introduced functionality problems that further undermined its e-commerce proposition.
“ASDA is also investing in refurbishing parts of its estate, but while modernised environments are welcome, store aesthetics are secondary when shoppers cannot rely on finding core products in stock. In a market where convenience, reliability, and ease of use are non‑negotiable, these failings risk eroding trust among loyal shoppers and pushing them towards more dependable competitors. To stem further damage, ASDA must stabilise its supply chain, prioritise availability on core everyday lines, and resolve digital glitches, even if that means slowing other elements of Project Future to protect daytoday trading. Clearer communication with customers around fixes to its app and service guarantees, such as substitution policies or delivery-slot reliability, are also essential to rebuild confidence online.
“ASDA Express again proved to be one of the few areas of resilience, with like-for-like sales up 3.5% in Q3, highlighting that proximity, convenience, and top-up shopping remain critical battlegrounds where ASDA can credibly compete. However, the strength of Express only serves to highlight how weak the wider business has become. Growth in its developing convenience estate cannot compensate for like-for-like decline in the core supermarkets and online channel.”
