Retail sales volumes are estimated to have fallen by 1.1% in October 2025, following an increase of 0.7% in September 2025, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show. This was the first monthly fall since May 2025. Supermarkets, clothing, and mail order retailers fell in October 2025, which some retailers attributed to consumers delaying their spending in the lead up to Black Friday.
The quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales is estimated to have risen by 1.1% in the three months to October 2025 compared with the three months to July 2025. Clothing store sales rounded off a strong performance in those three months, peaking in September, while computer and telecommunication retailers rose across September and October 2025.
Sagar Shah, associate partner at McKinsey & Company comments: “The golden quarter got off to a sluggish start, with retail sales volumes slipping by 1.1% in October. However, sales were up 1.1% over the three months to October 2025 by the same amount.
“Notably, food stores saw a 1.1% decline. Here, food inflation continued to rise and keep the weekly shop expensive.
“Clothing and footwear also cooled sales, likely due to the milder weather delaying winter wardrobe purchases. But, retailers still have an opportunity to capture more of the winter spend with personalised and timely Black Friday deals.
“Brands looking to tackle ad fatigue are turning to non-classical formats, to grab consumer attention, according to our European State of Marketing research. CMOs are planning to expand the immersive experiences they offer (+29 points), publish anti-advertising formats (+22), and offer shoppable content (+17) to drive sales.”
Jacqueline Windsor, head of retail at PwC UK, said: “Compared with October last year, retail sales excluding petrol grew 1.2% in volume terms, which translates into 3.0% more money in the tills of the nation’s retailers once inflation is taken into account. This was a slowdown on September’s results, following increases in the previous two months at the end of summer. On a month-on-month basis, October saw the first monthly fall in total retail sales since May.
“The dull weather, relatively mild start to the Autumn and stalling consumer sentiment appears to have encouraged shoppers to hold back on spending, leading to the slightly later start to Christmas shopping.
“In particular, fashion was not helped by stronger sales in preceding months and retailers will be hoping the current cold snap encourages more of us to refresh our wardrobes for the latest Autumn Winter season.
“Although online spending also fell in October, the proportion of retail sales online remained at 28.1%, as high street footfall continued to fall back.
“While October’s sales have proven to be a disappointing start to the critical ‘Golden Quarter’ in the run-up to Christmas, retailers will be hoping that shoppers are keeping their powder dry for both the Black Friday sales this month, and the first weeks of December, when the majority of us do most of our Christmas shopping.
“Despite stated interest in Black Friday declining this year according to our latest research, we are expecting an increase in consumers’ overall spending during the Black Friday sales period, up 1.5% to £6.4 billion, as the slightly fewer number of interested shoppers prepare to spend more, particularly on tech, electronics and fashion.
“Meanwhile, while consumers say that they will spend less this Christmas, previous years’ experience tells us that they typically spend up to 20% more than they plan. As a result, there is every opportunity for retailers to regain lost ground as Christmas shopping seems to start later and later every year.”
Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, said: “The fall in October’s retail sales, a first since May, is disappointing for the sector during the first month of the Golden Quarter. Consumers held off on making purchases ahead of Black Friday discounting, while unseasonably mild weather delayed purchases of winter goods. However, the three months to October do represent a more balanced picture, with uplifted spending in almost every category.
“Food sales volumes fell as persistent food inflation impacted consumers’ appetite to spend at supermarkets. Meanwhile, the fall in non-food sales also reflects the weight of high prices on a value conscious consumer.
“With inflation falling for the first time since March, there are hopes that consumers may be encouraged to spend in the run up to Christmas, particularly if inflation continues to ease and interest rates fall. With Black Friday on the horizon, and some of the busiest shopping days of the year fast approaching, retailers will be hoping for a positive end to 2025. Elsewhere, the outcome of the Budget will no doubt have an impact on how both consumers and retailers feel in the coming months.”
