Grocery price inflation held steady at 4.7% over the month to 30 November, new figures from Worldpanel by Numerator show, while take-home sales have risen below inflation by 3.4% over the four weeks. Retailers are ramping up investment in promotions to encourage shoppers through their doors as the march to Christmas gets underway with sales expected to exceed £13.6 billion in December.
The latest data for November shows 31.2% of spending was on promoted items, up from 30% this time last year. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, says: “Retailers are pulling out all the stops to win shoppers over as they gear up for one of the most important trading periods of the year. One in five households tell us that they’ve been struggling financially and that’s been largely consistent over the past two years. With the cost of living still biting for many this Christmas, just under one third of all spending is on promotion as supermarkets find ways to shield shoppers from the impact of price rises.”
The emphasis on offers and lower pricing means that the cost of a Christmas dinner for four is a few pence cheaper than last year at £32.46. However, retailers know that as well as keeping an eye on budgets, consumers also want to indulge during the festive season. McKevitt continues: “Retailers are savvy to the fact that at Christmas especially – even when times are tough – consumers still find the space in their wallet to spend on small treats. In fact, we’ve seen that right through the cost of living crisis as people have found new, more affordable ways to indulge in what we call the ‘pick-me-up pound’. The rise and rise of premium own label lines bears this out with one in every £20 now spent on these treat-type products.”
While chocolate prices are up 18.4% on this time last year, it hasn’t stopped five million households putting a confectionery advent calendar in their basket in November. Similarly, just over one in ten shoppers fancied a festive tipple and bought a bottle of champagne or sparkling wine over the last month.
Online remains the fastest growing part of the market with sales up by 8% in November to hit the second highest ever sales in a month since the pandemic high of February 2021. Boosted by the online jump, Ocado reached a new record market share of 2.2% with sales increasing by 15.8% over the 12 weeks to 30 November. However, bricks and mortar still dominates the grocery sector, and with Christmas falling on a Thursday this year, Monday 22nd and Tuesday 23rd are expected to be the busiest shopping days of the year.
Driven by its ninth consecutive month of double-digit sales growth at 10.2%, Lidl made the biggest market share gain, winning an additional 0.5 percentage points compared with last year to reach 8.1%. Sales at Sainsbury’s rose by 5.1%, bringing the retailer’s market share to 16.0%. Tesco grew sales by 4.7%, as it attracted 321,000 more shoppers over the 12 weeks versus last year. Britain’s largest grocer now holds 28.3% of the market.
Spending through the tills at Aldi increased by 4.1% and its share remains at 10.5%. Waitrose and Iceland both grew ahead of the market at 4.0%, maintaining shares of 4.4% and 2.3% respectively.
Sales at Asda now account for 11.5% of the market, while Morrisons holds 8.3% and Co-op’s share stands at 5.3%. Beyond the grocers, sales of take-home groceries at M&S were 8.9% higher over the 12 weeks compared with the same period in 2024.
