According to retail experts MRI Springboard, the Coronation weekend is set to boost footfall by +4.0% compared to 2022 across all UK retail destinations. A spectacle not seen by the majority of the UK population, high streets are expected to enjoy a boost of activity as consumers enjoy a second consecutive bank holiday weekend to mark the occasion.
High street retailers can expect a significant boost, with footfall up +12.0% from 2022 on the bank holiday Monday following the Coronation, with an annual increase of +10.0% at UK shopping centres. Across the Coronation weekend as a whole, annual footfall is predicted to climb by +5.0% on UK high streets, compared to +4.0% at retail parks and +3.0% at shopping centres.
On the day of the Coronation itself, Saturday 6 May, MRI Springboard forecasts that footfall will drop below the week previous by -8.0% across all UK retail destinations, largely due to strong footfall expected during the early May bank holiday weekend preceding the Coronation. Despite week-on-week footfall dropping by -8.0% across all UK destinations, high streets are still likely to benefit from events hosted in town and city centres to celebrate the coronation.
The forecast boost to footfall is anticipated to close the gap to 2019 levels to -10.0% across all UK retail destinations over the Coronation weekend, with footfall at retail parks narrowing to just -3.0% below pre-pandemic levels.
The forecast for footfall over the coronation weekend is tempered by the result for footfall last week when, post Easter this year, activity tailed off noticeably. Between Tuesday and Saturday last week – which excludes any comparison with or impact of Easter – footfall was -3.3% lower than the week before all of which emanated from lower footfall in shopping centres and retail parks that averaged -10.7% and -4.6% from the week previous. In contrast, footfall in high streets rose by an average of +1% from the week before over the five days, however, this was still a modest uplift. Consequently, with the Coronation bank holiday weekend following immediately on from the Early May Bank Holiday weekend, footfall is forecast to be lower than the weekend before.
Diane Wehrle, insights director at MRI Springboard: “The Coronation weekend will be a once in a lifetime event for UK consumers, offering a spectacle never seen before by most of the population. It is taking place the week following the early May bank holiday when MRI Springboard expects footfall to rise by around +12% as consumers enjoy the warmer weather and the longer day light hours.
Therefore, on Saturday, the day of the actual coronation service, MRI Springboard forecasts that footfall in high streets will be -7% lower than on the previous Saturday but -10% lower in shopping centres. The stronger result in high streets than in shopping centres is likely to be a result of some town and city centres holding events to celebrate the coronation, and installing screens so that consumers can watch the coronation service from the town centre. We forecast that footfall in retail parks will be -5% lower than the week before, following a rise in footfall to retail parks over the late May bank holiday driven by purchases of home and garden products as consumers make the most of two bank holiday weekends.
On Sunday 7th May footfall across all UK retail destinations is forecast to be marginally lower than on the previous Sunday (-2%), but again a rise in footfall in high streets is forecast as screens in town centres will be showing the coronation concert making them attractive destinations for friends and families to gather for meals and drinks. In shopping centres footfall is forecast to be -8% lower than on the previous Sunday as high streets represent a greater lure with their strong representation of bars and restaurants from where customers can enjoy the coronation concert. Footfall in retail parks on Sunday is forecast to be -2% lower than on the previous Sunday.
On Monday 8th May footfall is forecast to be marginally lower than on the early May Bank Holiday Monday (-0.5%), with drops of -8% in retail parks and -1% in shopping centres, but with a forecast rise of +6% in high streets as shoppers enjoy the last day off before returning to work and school on the following day.
The forecast change in footfall from the week before suggests that over the weekend as a whole footfall across all UK retail destinations will be +4% higher than over the same weekend in 2022, but still -10% lower than over the same weekend in 2019.”
Across the seven days last week, footfall in UK retail destinations rose by +1.7% from the previous – post Easter – week. However, this result was hugely distorted by a rise of +70.1% on Sunday in response to a drop of -39.4% on the previous Sunday which was Easter Sunday and stores were closed. Even on Monday footfall rose by +7.7%, driven by a rise of +22.9% in high streets which followed a drop of -28.4% in high streets on the Monday before that which was Easter Monday.
Over the five days from Tuesday to Saturday there was an average decline of -3.3% across all UK retail destinations, all of which emanated from shopping centres and retail parks where footfall averaged -10.7% and -4.6%. In contrast, footfall in high streets rose by an average of +1% from the week before over the five days. Footfall rose from the week before across all town types other than coastal and historic towns where footfall declined for the second consecutive week last week (by -8.5% and -1.9% respectively).
In Central London footfall rose by +5.1% from the week before and Springboard’s Central London “Back to the Office” benchmark rose even more, by +7.4% as employees returned to their offices.
Wehrle said: “In contrast with last week, footfall across UK retail destinations rose marginally from the week before. However, this headline rate is deceptive, as all the rise emanated from a rebound in footfall on Sunday 16th April and to some degree on Monday 17th April, which was expected as it followed a significant drop in footfall on Easter Sunday (9th April) when stores were closed and Easter Monday (10th April).
A more realistic view is provided by examining the remaining five days of the week when a comparison is drawn with the period post the Easter weekend. Over the period from Tuesday to Saturday last week footfall was weak, with declines from the week before on four days driven by noticeable drops in footfall across shopping centres and retail parks.
In contrast footfall in high streets was more stable, with rises on three of the five days. This was reflected in the results across the range of town types, with uplifts from the week before in all but coastal and historic towns where footfall had risen significantly over the week leading up to Easter. Central London had the greatest bounce back in footfall, with an even greater increase in Springboard’s Central London “Back to the Office” benchmark which reflected the return to the office of many employees following the Easter break.”
