Total Till sales at UK supermarkets remain strong at +3.3% growth for the four weeks ending 18th May 2024, according to new data released today by NIQ.
This is in line with figures reported last month (+3.4%) and is attributed to the brief period of hot weather during the week ending 11th May 2024, which pushed value growths at the supermarkets to +5.1%1, a two month high (with the exception of Easter), yet sales did fall slightly once the rain returned. Sales figures are in line with expectations given that supermarkets were competing against exceptionally high comparatives from last year, which included a double Bank Holiday, the King’s Coronation and consistently warmer weather.
The one week of hot weather helped to lift FMCG volume (unit) growth (+1.8%) at the major supermarkets over the four week period, as UK shoppers splashed out on ice cream (+55%)2, cider (+32%), pre-mixed alcoholic drinks (+28%) and mineral water (+26%) as Brits sought to enjoy the warm sunshine while it lasted. With more time spent outside, sales of suncare (+96%) also soared as did hayfever treatments (+49%).
NIQ data shows that during the four week period, visits to stores increased (+2.8%), equating to an additional 14.3m visits compared to last year. And while this led to fewer shoppers using the online channel, those that did shopped more often. This led to the number of online orders increasing +4.1%. The online share of FMCG spend also slightly improved to 13.0% (up from 12.7% a year ago).
With more shoppers out and about in the sunshine, this also led to an uplift in FMCG spend in the convenience channel (+3.9%).
According to NIQ, there was no change in terms of spending on promotion over the last four weeks, with spend remaining at 25%. This averaged to 36% for brands (up from 33% last year) and 16% for own-label items (up from 15% last year).
In terms of retailer performance over the last 12 weeks, growth was led by Ocado (+12.4%) but sales were also strong for Sainsbury’s (+6.0%) and Tesco (+5.4%). Sales growth at M&S slowed to +7.6% due to last year’s high comparatives, with the discounters Aldi and Lidl also experiencing slowing sales. While Asda was the only retailer where sales declined compared to last year, there were more visits per shopper to Asda than a year ago and footfall was also helped by the new Asda Express convenience stores.
Mike Watkins, NIQ’s UK head of retailer and business insight, said: “Over the last four weeks we’ve noticed that it was the warm weather which helped to move the dial in terms of shopper spending at the UK supermarkets, more so than food inflation, which is expected to remain at around 3% for the next few months. Despite this, many shoppers are still faced with limits to their discretionary spend, and this is having an impact on certain categories, so retailers must focus efforts on driving food and drink sales.”
Watkins continues: “With weather being such a big factor in driving shopping behaviour, trading over the next few weeks will be challenging as last year marked the hottest June on record. Yet we do have a summer of sport to look forward to with at least 45%3 of UK households interested in the UEFA Euro 2024 tournament, this should kick start sales again. Our data shows that of these, 69% plan to watch the matches at home by themselves or with other household members, meaning this could be a boon for supermarket sales of drinks, snacks and food for event-driven categories, such as barbeques.
Watkins concludes: “Given that we have seen that shoppers were responsive to a week of sunny weather in May, retailers and suppliers will need to remain agile to respond to this with relevant promotions and good availability when summer finally arrives.”
Table: 12-weekly % share of grocery market spend by retailer and value sales % change
