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Worldpanel by Numerator: heatwave has shoppers reaching for summer staples, while inflation slows to 2.1%

by Fiona Briggs
August 18, 2026
in Data
Reading Time: 3 mins read

Take-home sales growth at the grocers slowed to 2.5% while grocery price inflation eased to 2.1% in the four weeks to 9th August 2026, marking the lowest rate since October 2024.

Despite the further easing of price rises, spending returned to more normal levels following a boost last month. Shoppers spent £410 on groceries on average over the four weeks – £14.24 less than the last period.

Sally Ball, business unit director at Worldpanel by Numerator, commented: “With inflation slowing again, this marks the fifth consecutive month of easing prices. Shoppers are feeling the relief with 39% now feeling financially comfortable, marking the highest level of financial confidence since November 2021*. But it’s by no means the same picture for all, with 20% reporting that they are struggling, and this has a clear impact on spending decisions. Among these households, 30% are more likely to prioritise grocery essentials over additional summer spending such as holidays and travel.”

Many shoppers turned to promotions to keep costs down, with 31.3% of sales including a deal last month – the highest level this year. While premium own label moved back into double figures for the first time since March at 11.1%, 96 million trips included a value own label product in the last four weeks; however, this remains a smaller and declining part of the market.

Convenient summer staples perform well

With the hot weather continuing into August, convenient summer favourites performed well. Dips were up 23.3%, with coleslaw close behind at 23.1% and potato salad up 22%. Chilled finger foods rose by 15.2%, chilled quiche by 15.8%, and chilled olives were up 13.3%, rounding out a summer spread built for grazing rather than cooking. Sun cream sales also jumped 58.4%, with under-45s delivering the strongest uplift as households geared up for time outdoors.

While the sustained heat put pressure on the freezer aisle, that did not deter shoppers, who made an additional 6.2 million trips to the aisle this month compared to the same period last year. Ice cream and sorbet led the charge, with sales up 26.1% on last year. Frozen fruit was another stand out, with sales up 48.1%, far outpacing the fresh fruit category.

Ball, commenting on the latest figures, said: “The continued heat across the UK has certainly impacted the way people are eating and drinking. Earlier this summer we saw that mealtimes were being pushed later in the day, with 13% of evening meals now eaten after 8pm **. Shoppers have been trying to stay cool this month, with soft drinks growing 15.1% in spend, while the freezer aisle saw shoppers stocking up on ice cream, sorbet and frozen fruit to beat the heat.”

Online remained the fastest growing channel, with an 8.3% uptick in shopper visits. Despite overall grocery inflation slowing, online baskets are getting smaller. At £86.28, average spend is now £1.13 less than it was a year ago.

Ocado continues to grow the fastest while Lidl gains the most additional shoppers 

Ocado was once again the fastest growing grocer, with sales up by 13.1% over the 12 weeks to 9th August 2026 compared with the same period time a year ago. Ocado’s share moved up by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1% of the market.

Lidl gained the most share this period, adding 0.5% to take them to 8.8% of the market. They also saw the greatest uplift in shoppers, attracting 736, 000 more through the doors compared to this time last year. Lidl sales increased by 8.5%.

Whilst Asda have yet to see sales growth in 2026, they are edging ever closer. Accounting for 11.5% of the market, their sales decreased -0.2% year on year. This marks their best recorded performance since March 2024.

Both Sainsbury’s and Morrisons gained 0.1% market share this period at 15.2% and 8.5% respectively. Sales at Sainsbury’s grew by 3.5%, with Morrisons close behind at 3.3%.

Take home grocery sales at convenience specialist, Co-op, grew at 5.1%. Co-op now holds 5.5% market share, their highest since September 2025.

Britain’s largest grocer, Tesco, has a market share of 27.8% with sales growth of 1.8%.

Aldi attracted an additional 488, 000 shoppers this period. The discounter now holds 10.7% market share, with sales increasing by 1.1% compared with the same period last year.

Both Waitrose and Iceland held market share stable this period, accounting for 4.5% and 2.3% of the market respectively. Iceland’s sales growth of 2.4% is the highest since February this year while Waitrose sales increased by 2.8%.

Beyond the grocers, grocery-only sales at M&S increased by 15.9% over the 12 weeks.

Share This Article

Similar Retail News Articles:

  1. Worldpanel by Numerator: World Cup and heatwave send shoppers out in force as inflation eases to 2.6%
  2. Worldpanel by Numerator: grocery inflation holds steady as shoppers prepare for Easter
  3. Worldpanel by Numerator: grocery inflation eases as early May grey skies dampen sales of summer essentials
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