Retail sales volumes are estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in November 2025, following a fall of 0.9% in October 2025 and a rise of 0.8% in September 2025, the latest data from the Office for National Statistics reveal. Non-store retailers’ volumes dipped as demand for gold slowed, while supermarkets fell for the fourth consecutive month.
The quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales is estimated to have risen by 0.6% in the three months to November 2025 compared with the three months to August 2025. Clothing stores and computer and telecommunication retailers maintained a strong three-monthly performance. Furniture stores also rose following growth over the last five consecutive months.
Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, said: “A second consecutive month of decline in retail sales will be a big disappointment for retailers, particularly with Black Friday and early Christmas shopping captured in these figures. It could be that some consumers opted to delay spending decisions until after the Budget, but the rise in volumes across department stores, clothing and footwear, and household goods suggests that the start of the discounting period could have enticed consumers into purchases at the end of the month. Meanwhile, supermarket sales declining for a fourth consecutive month is a sign of the times, with food inflation still having a significant impact on consumers budgets and purchasing decisions.
“A successful December, to round off a subdued Golden Quarter, will be at the top of retailers wish lists. The bigger picture of retail in 2025 showed a prolonged pressure from weak consumer confidence and challenging economic conditions. With interest rates and inflation continuing to fall, retailers will hope this can spur a rebound in consumer spending. On the other hand, if economic uncertainty continues, the apprehension among both consumers and retailers may continue in 2026.”
Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, said: “Speculation around potential tax hikes and the wettest weather seen this year dampened retail sales in November. The drop in sales compounded a bleak start to the all-important Golden Quarter, not even Black Friday deals could entice shoppers to splurge ahead of Christmas, with the biggest fall in online.
“Consumer confidence has ticked up in December highlighting a potential budget bounce which will hopefully translate into a late surge in sales as people hit the high street in a last-minute rush. Budget jitters should have subsided now and with no major shocks, confidence should start to improve just in time to turn around fortunes in the Golden Quarter.
“Looking ahead to 2026, retailers continue to face headwinds with low consumer confidence combined with already high employment costs set to rise further as the national minimum wage increases again. Business rates reform could also disproportionately hit larger operators and online businesses presenting a mixed, challenging trading environment next year.
“In addition, consumers continue to be cautious with many opting to save rather than splurge, so retailers need to create a compelling proposition that not only resonates with consumers but tempts them to spend.”
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, added: “The tick down in retail sales volumes in November was mainly driven by a 0.5% m/m fall in food sales, volumes elsewhere rose by 1.0% m/m. That is a good sign that all was not lost in the pre-budget chaos that has heavily weighed on sentiment. However, it did come at a price with heavy discounting meaning retail goods prices fell by 0.2% on the month.
“Looking ahead, the bounce back in consumer confidence to -17 in December suggests that sentiment will improve now that the budget has turned out to be more benign than expected. However, the outlook for consumers is looking a bit tougher next year. A weakening labour market combined with still high inflation means real household incomes are likely to grow by just 0.5% a year.
“The outlook for consumer spending hinges on whether consumers continue with their current elevated levels of saving or pare back saving to support consumption. With the household saving ratio elevated and balance sheets in aggregate looking healthy, there is plenty of room for consumers to save a little less and spend a bit more, if they are confident enough.”
Sandra Prince, head of consumer at Lloyds, said: “Sales growth might have dipped but retailers remain focused on maximising opportunities at the close of the Golden Quarter and are looking to build on momentum that was generated with shoppers that secured Black Friday bargains.
“Behind the scenes, businesses are accelerating investment in digital innovation and loyalty programmes to ensure they start the new year from a position of strength. Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate an even sharper focus on in‑store experience as retailers work to deepen customer relationships and reinforce resilience in a competitive market.”
