Retail sales fell 0.4% in September 2026, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics. This follows a rise of 0.7% in August 2026, and a fall of 0.4% in July 2026 . Mail order retail sales fell in September 2026 as online clothing retailers suggested that sales of autumn and winter ranges were affected by the warmer weather. Supermarket sales also fell following growth in July and August 2026.
Hai-Ly Nguyen, associate partner at McKinsey & Company comments: “September’s decline adds pressure before the golden quarter. The ONS links the fall to warm weather hitting autumn and winter clothing, with non-food volumes down 0.4% on the month, even though the three months to September still rose 0.7%.
“Food stores and non-store retailing both helped the quarter at +0.6% and +1.0% respectively over three months but fell in September by -0.4% and −2.2%, with supermarkets easing after a strong July and August, while online-led non-store sales were hit by warm weather and weak autumn clothing.
“McKinsey’s State of the Consumer 2026 research shows consumers remain value-focused: more than three-quarters still trade down, and many are deferring or rethinking discretionary purchases, including apparel, before peak trading.
“The run-up to Christmas decides the year’s profits for many non-food retailers like fashion and consumer electronics. If shoppers buy less on each trip, competition for every basket will be tougher, and margins are already tight going in. We could see discounts start earlier or go deeper as retailers race for Black Friday and holiday baskets.”
Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, said: “The drop in retail sales in September suggests that consumers are tightening their purse strings as they assess what the coming months could mean for their finances. The rise in inflation, fuel and energy prices, as well as falling consumer confidence, are creating a cocktail of uncertainty for many.
“While spending remained relatively consistent across the summer months, resilience will now be pushed further as inflation rises once more, and the cost of fuel and utilities continues to increase. The recent shift to cooler weather and a stormier start to October may provide some support for seasonal categories such as autumn and winter clothing, homewares and comfort food, which suffered in September due to the unseasonably warm weather. However, spending is likely to come under increasing pressure as households weigh up their finances and prioritise where their money goes as winter arrives.
“The Golden Quarter, as always, will be a critical trading period for retailers. With Halloween, Black Friday, and Christmas – including major advertising campaigns – all competing for consumers’ attention, retailers will be working hard to capture demand while demonstrating value. Alongside trading performance, cyber resilience will remain a key focus as retailers seek to maintain customer trust and operational stability through one of the busiest periods of the year.”
Jacqueline Windsor, head of retail at PwC UK, said: “While retail sales volumes slowed marginally in September – by 0.7% excluding petrol compared with August’s recovery – they remain up on the quarter (by 1.7%) and up on the year (by 0.8%). This translated into 3.4% more pounds in retailers’ tills compared with last September.
“Fashion retailers fared worst, with sales declining by 1.7%. The UK’s fourth warmest September did little to encourage shoppers to buy warm seasonal clothing, particularly compared with the autumnal weather 12 months earlier.
“Although all other retail categories saw sales rise year-on-year, rising petrol prices meant that consumers had to divert more of their spending on filling up their cars – over 30% more than last September – meaning less to spend on other things.
“So, while retail prices, and grocery prices in particular, have remained subdued thanks to industry competition and the delayed pass-through of cost increases due to the conflict in the Middle East, the higher-than-expected inflation reported earlier this week will inevitably translate into less in shoppers’ pockets in the critical run-up to Christmas.
“With most retailers’ sales coming in the last three months of the year, the upcoming peak season remains on a knife edge. This time last year, uncertainty surrounding the late Budget at the end of November held back spending in the preceding two months. While that makes this year’s comparisons easier, retailers will be hoping that anything announced by the Chancellor this year does not add further to their cost of doing business nor dent consumers’ sentiment, which already seems to have fallen from the highs at the end of summer.”
