Barclays: December consumer spending grew 2.3% as holiday bookings and festivities brought cheer for hospitality and leisure

Consumer card spending grew 2.3% year-on-year in December – less than the latest CPIH inflation rate of 4.2% and lower than November’s growth of 2.9%. Retail spending struggled to maintain the momentum it had built up in November through early seasonal discounts, while entertainment and travel thrived as consumers booked experiences and getaways for 2024.

Spending on essential items slowed, rising just 1.8% compared to 3.3% in November, as falling petrol prices continued to impact fuel spending (-12.5%). Meanwhile, the deceleration in food price inflation meant supermarket shopping saw its lowest uplift (2.8%) since September 2022 (2.8%). This could also be due to shoppers already having stocked up on festive food and drink in November, taking advantage of early supermarket discounts and deals.

On the other hand, food and drink specialist stores – including butchers and delicatessens – saw a notable uptick in spending (5.1%), as consumers chose to invest in more premium, seasonal ingredients and to support their local businesses in the run up to Christmas.

Festive cheer for pubs, bars and clubs

Spending on non-essential items rose 2.5%, as festive activities and celebrations boosted the hospitality and leisure sector (up 8.9%).

Christmas parties and gatherings fuelled spending at pubs, bars and clubs (7.9%), while restaurants, though still in decline (-8.8%), had their best month since August. The comparatively smooth running of transport networks certainly helped the sector in December, compared to 2022 when industrial action hampered Christmas plans.

Late Glasto fever fuels entertainment expenditure

The entertainment sector was a particular bright spot, seeing noticeable growth (12.3%) following a -1.7% decline in November. This included shows and concerts, which grew 13.9%, as Brits snapped up tickets for Glastonbury Festival, which were released two weeks later than usual, as well as for Christmas pantomimes and shows. Meanwhile, new blockbuster releases such as ‘Wonka’ and ‘Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom’ boosted cinema spending by 8.0%.

New series spur streaming surge 

Digital content and subscriptions also saw strong growth, rising 11.6% – the category’s highest uplift since August 2021 (13.2%) – due to some streaming platforms increasing their prices and consumers turning to home entertainment during the festive period. This comes as more than two fifths (41%) of Brits said they were looking forward to watching the latest film and TV releases, with titles such as ‘Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget’ and the final series of ‘The Crown’ encouraging households to enjoy cosy nights in front of the TV.

Christmas shopping frenzy fizzles yet December 22^nd was busiest day of the year

Meanwhile, both clothing and department stores fell back into decline (-2.0% and -0.2% respectively), after witnessing a spike in November. This is likely due to retailers starting their festive promotional activity earlier in 2023, which encouraged Brits to shop for Christmas party outfits and gifts in November rather than December to take advantage of the best deals.

Yet, Friday 22^nd December was especially busy and saw Barclays set an all-time record for transactions processed per-second, as many Brits celebrated finishing work for the year in pubs and bars and sought out last-minute gifts. Retail and food & drink transaction volumes were up 66.8% and 38.1% respectively in comparison to the average day in 2023. Supermarket transactions also peaked on Saturday 23^rd, representing a 41.8% increase compared to the year’s daily average.

Travel triumphs

It was another positive month for the travel sector, with airlines (20.2%) and travel agents (12.8%) both enjoying even stronger growth than in November (14.0% and 9.2% respectively), as holidaymakers booked getaways for 2024. One in seven Brits (15%) say they plan to take more holidays in 2024 than in recent years, one in 10 (11%) has been saving up to afford a bigger holiday in 2024, and the same proportion (10%) will be taking advantage of deals in the January sales.

Beach holidays (44%), city breaks (37%), and adventure holidays (12%) are the most popular types of getaways Brits are booking, while the UK (47%), Spain (24%), and Greece (12%) are travellers’ top destinations.

New Year, new goals

Beyond travel, Brits are setting themselves other goals for the year ahead. Nearly one in five (18%) is planning to take part in Dry January, citing being healthier (50%), saving money (42%), and wanting to drink less alcohol (30%) as their main reasons for participating. Dry January participants expect to save an average of £48.90 over the course of the month by cutting back and switching to non-alcoholic alternatives.

Looking at broader financial goals, nearly half of consumers (48%) want to save more money this year, with 12% intending to invest more money in stocks and shares, and 9% looking to make greater contributions to their pension.

Energy costs cause concern, yet consumer confidence climbs

Meanwhile, the energy price cap increase on 1^st January is also playing on Brits’ minds, with nearly nine in 10 (87%) concerned about the impact of rising household bills on their personal finances. To save energy costs, over a third (35%) are planning to switch on their lights and heating less frequently, while 28% will be prioritising wearing more layers and using hot water bottles to keep warm this winter.

Reassuringly however, more consumers are feeling confident about their household finances (67% – the highest since August 2023) and ability to live within their means each month (73% – the highest since November 2021), likely as a result of falling inflation and mortgage rates.

Karen Johnson, Hhead of retail at Barclays, said: “Hospitality and leisure businesses will be encouraged by December’s strong growth, particularly in the entertainment category, which saw growing demand for live shows, new films and TV series.

“Meanwhile, grocery and retail spending didn’t see as much of an increase as we might have expected during the height of the festive season. This is likely due to many retailers and supermarkets starting discounts and promotional activity earlier than usual, meaning that many Brits had been making the most of these deals and completed most of their Christmas shopping by December.

“While the upcoming energy price cap is weighing on Brits’ minds, the falling rate of inflation offers a glimmer of positivity and it’s encouraging to see the nation’s optimism increase slightly as we head into a new year.”

Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays, said: “We saw inflation fall significantly at the end of 2023, and we expect it to fall further in the opening months of 2024. This puts more spending power in the pockets of UK consumers and should help support them to continue to spend, even against the tough backdrop of weak economic growth.

”It’s also encouraging to see tentative signs of an improving mortgage market; approvals have begun to rise and mortgage rates are continuing to fall. However, it’s worth remembering that many people this year will still be dropping off of fixed-term mortgages onto new deals with higher rates than they had previously, eating away at some of their newly found spending power.”

Overall growth figures