Almost £2 billion could be drained from the UK Exchequer, as retailers predict vast job losses over the next three years, according to analysis1 by Forvis Mazars, a leading global professional services network.
With the Retail Jobs Alliance2 warning that more than 300,000 jobs across the sector could be at risk by 2028 because of rising costs, Forvis Mazars has calculated the impact that these job losses could have on raising funds for the Exchequer. Overall, £1,995,600,000 could be lost due to the Income Tax and National Insurance payments which HMRC will miss out on following the predicted job cuts. However, the impact is likely to be even more significant when wider cost pressures, such as increased unemployment, are taken into account.
Ian Goodwin, Head of Employment Tax at Forvis Mazars in the UK, said: “Retailers continue to face a challenging landscape and recent changes in the Budget have compounded this further. Widespread job losses are understandably expected, and these could put significant pressure on the UK’s finances. The potential £2 billion loss to the Exchequer underscores just how critical it is to address the rising costs facing retailers and ensure the stability of employment across the sector.”
Forvis Mazars has identified the following steps businesses can take to save costs and protect jobs:
- Assess shift patterns and opening hours
- Automate, and digitise, the retail experience further to reduce “on-the-ground costs”
- Consider what can be outsourced and how to manage “IR35” risks potentially associated with this
- Consider options around vehicle fleets, car allowances and expenses when travelling on business
- Look at longer-term incentives to defer costs
- Model future workforce scenarios to help navigate further cost pressures and workforce challenges
- Implement salary sacrifice for pension, cars, additional leave, cycle to work, but being mindful of the National Minimum Wage interactions
- Consider putting more individuals aged under 25 on apprenticeships as this will reduce the employer NIC bill
- Consider if a TRONC arrangement can save NIC where tips and gratuities are received
