‘Black November’ has gotten off to a poor start for eCommerce, with sales dipping markedly in the first two weeks. IMRG’s Online Retail Index, which tracks the online sales performance of 200+ retailers, reported a -5.9% Year-on-Year (YoY) decline in the week commencing 28th October, the sharpest drop since June this year. The week commencing 3rd November also saw a drop, at -3.9% YoY, causing many retailers some anxiety over peak trading prospects.
However, the late timing of Black Friday this year is one of the key factors impacting performance. Falling on 29th November due to Thanksgiving being on the fourth Thursday of November, Black Friday is five days later than in 2023. This makes direct Year-on-Year comparisons tricky and signals that much of the anticipated shopping activity is still to come. As of the week commencing 17th November, just under half of 300 retailers IMRG are tracking are yet to launch their campaigns (a lower number than same time last year).
The later weeks of this month may bring hope for Black Friday as, by the 29th, the entire UK workforce will have received their November pay, positioning this as a primary shopping day. This shift could drive stronger performance on the Friday itself and result in declines on Cyber Monday, which is in December this year.
A boost may also come from ‘Fake Friday’ (22nd November), as many customers could mistakenly think it is Black Friday as the actual day is late in the month, with many campaigns expected to be live by that date.
Though there has been heightened performance-related anxieties among the total market, there are a few online product categories that have experienced growth. In particular, Health & Beauty has been the star performer; the subcategory Fragrance saw a significant revenue increase in the week commencing 3rd November, at +66.9% YoY, and Haircare also saw exceptional performance, at +66.1% YoY. Furniture retailers also celebrated growth that week (+12.3% YoY).
Andy Mulcahy, strategy and insight director at IMRG, commented: “The Black Friday period goes on for so long and is such a big part of the year for retailers that it brings highs and lows that can make it difficult to understand if it is going well while it is still active. The date move means the weekly sales like-for-likes will look a bit odd at first, but by the time we get into December it should be starting to look a lot clearer. A slow start and a test of nerve for retailers for sure, but we may see a lopsided month here where the second half is much improved. It could be a good peak for retailers yet.”
