In the GLP-1 weight management market, manufacturers are now launching oral drugs. Novo Nordisk announced the launch of the first GLP-1 drug (Wegovy) in a pill format last month. Eli Lilly & Co is in the process of launching its own GLP-1 pill, orforglipron post FDA approval later this year. Easier administration and potentially lower cost of oral GLP-1 therapies could drive wider adoption in the US. With the increased usage of the pill, the most immediate knock-on effect could be a change in food and drink purchasing behavior, says GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.
According to GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center, the total GLP-1 pill market is forecast to increase from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $34.3 billion in 2031, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48.4% over the period. Total pill revenues are estimated to represent a fifth of total GLP-1 drug sales (pill + injectables) by 2031. Based on Wegovy’s GLP-1 pill revenue forecast, the US is set to account for 60% of the pill market through 2031.
Shraddha Shelke, consumer analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Wider adoption of GLP-1 pills is expected to reshape grocery and foodservice purchasing. Appetite suppression may lead to smaller basket sizes, fewer impulse purchases, increased demand for high-protein, high fiber, and nutrient-dense, portion-controlled options, and greater scrutiny of ingredient formulations in food and drinks. US retailers that move early to tailor product ranges and merchandise their shelves targeting GLP-1 users may be better positioned to protect share as eating behaviors change.”
According to GlobalData’s 2024 Q3 global consumer survey, 60% of consumers say they are “always/often” influenced by how the product impacts their health and wellbeing when making a purchasing decision*. It also revealed that speed of the results is a major driver of interest in weight-loss drugs, with 61% of consumers citing a desire to lose weight quickly as a motivation.
The cost of a weight-loss injectable in the US is around $1,000 per month, while Novo Nordisk confirmed that the Wegovy pill is priced at $149 to $299 per month, depending on the dosage, making it an affordable option among consumers who had hesitation to try the drug due to its high cost. Beyond weight-loss, GLP-1 therapies are being studied for demonstrating cardiovascular benefits in specific patient groups. This may encourage consumers to use weight-management therapies for a longer term, depending on clinical guidance, tolerability, and affordability.
In the UK, several retailers have responded to the growing impact that GLP-1 drugs on food and drinks choices by developing portion-controlled and nutrient dense ranges. Morrison’s collaborated with Applied Nutrition to launch GLP-1 friendly ready meals, and Co-op’s Good Fuel mini meals target smaller portion sizes with high protein and fiber. M&S launched nutrient-dense salads, snacks, and meals. All these products are positioned for consumers managing their appetite.
US retailers such as Kroger, Target, and Walmart are focusing on expanding branded portion-controlled and high-protein meal solutions to target GLP-1 users, such as Conagra’s Healthy Choice and Nestle’s Vital Pursuit, rather than developing their own ranges at present.
Shraddha continues: “UK retailers are strategically positioning and promoting their own brand meal options tailored towards GLP-1 users. For US retailers, this is a strategic opportunity to present consumers with portion-controlled offerings – high protein, high fiber, and nutrient density – which can strengthen loyalty and protect their category share as GLP-1 usage expands.”
*GlobalData 2024 Q3 global consumer survey, 21,000 respondents across 42 countries
