Shopify today launched its 2026 Holiday Retail report, revealing the traits of today’s discerning, savvy shopper, and how businesses can win them over.
Consumers are entering the season under significant economic pressure, with 53% of UK shoppers saying recent conditions have negatively affected their shopping plans. Yet spending continues, as planned Black Friday weekend spending across the UK is expected to drop to £165 on average from £181 in 2025.
Shoppers will still spend, but with far more scrutiny
One third (34%) of British shoppers have postponed a purchase in the past year because of increased living costs. To combat this, they are value-maxxing: spending more time researching, comparing and weighing up whether a purchase is genuinely worth it. Nearly nine in ten (86%) of UK shoppers say they feel more in control after researching. They’re also turning carts into watchlists. Over a quarter of UK shoppers (28%) said they deliberately leave products in their cart to see if the price drops. When shoppers did leave items in their carts, 32% said they return to complete the purchase when the price drops, while 29% buy after a discount code, voucher or special offer becomes available.
For today’s British consumers, value does not simply mean paying less. 54% define good value as receiving higher-than-expected quality for the price, while 38% say it means products having a longer lifespan than expected. A further 37% associate good value with earning bonus loyalty points.
UK businesses are hopeful, with 82% expecting higher sales over the holiday season this year (in line with sentiment in 2025), despite grappling with rising costs (45%), increased competition (38%) and disruption to supply chains (23%). In a season where every new sale will be hard-won, they are looking beyond the immediate transaction and prioritising long-term loyalty. Returning-customer discounts (40%), loyalty or rewards programmes (38%), and improvements to delivery, tracking and returns (36%) are among the approaches businesses say are most effective at building longer-term relationships.
“UK consumers have not stopped spending, but every purchase now has to earn its place. With 53% saying recent economic conditions have affected their shopping plans, businesses cannot assume that a discount alone will secure the sale this holiday season. They need to show UK shoppers why their product is worth choosing, make the path to purchase as clear as possible and deliver an experience that gives customers a reason to come back,” said Stephen Rogan, Head of Customer Success, EMEA at Shopify.
AI is becoming a new shopping companion
As shoppers work harder to find the right product, AI is becoming part of the research process. Nearly two-thirds (64%) in the UK are likely to use AI for at least one shopping task during the holiday period, most commonly to find deals (29%) or discover products and inspiration (23%). Shoppers still draw a line at handing over the full purchase, though. Over half (52%) are comfortable letting AI recommend the right product, and 41% would let it build their cart, but only 28% trust it to complete a purchase on their behalf.
And businesses are preparing for AI-assisted shopping: 45% are creating AI-generated content, while a similar number (45%) are prioritising AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants. Meanwhile, 41% are making their stores easier for AI assistants to read and recommend.
AI users choose independent brands more often
In addition to becoming a powerful filter for helping shoppers decide what is worth considering, AI is also creating opportunities for smaller brands to stand out more. Nearly three quarters (76%) of UK shoppers who use AI most frequently are much more likely to choose independent or niche brands, compared with 45% of non-AI users. Heavy AI users are also much less interested in buying from mass-market brands than they were last year (59%) and are choosing more products that feel personal, intentional or considered (81%).
This creates a new opportunity for businesses that can clearly communicate what makes their product different. Forty-seven per cent of UK businesses are emphasising products that are unique or hard to find, while 38% are highlighting where and how their products are made, and the same (38%) are drawing attention to their independent or small-business status.
When thinking about what would make them reach for AI tools more, access to information makes the difference. Over a quarter (29%) of British consumers said clear prices and discounts would make them more likely to use AI tools, while 27% noted the ability to compare products against similar options and a fifth (22%) said clear delivery times and shipping costs would increase the likelihood.
“AI is changing the front door to commerce for UK shoppers. They are using it to discover new products and brands, creating a powerful opportunity for independent and specialist businesses to be found. To best benefit, UK businesses need to ensure the fundamentals are in place, from accurate product information and inventory to clear pricing and delivery details, so both shoppers and their AI assistants can understand what makes their products worth choosing,”Rogan continued.
With 44% of consumers expecting to split their shopping evenly between online and offline this season, while 32% will shop mainly online and 17% mainly in-store, connected data for a seamless shopping experience will be critical. This holiday season, the brands that win will not necessarily offer the deepest discount. They’ll be the ones to make their products easy to discover, give shoppers clear proof of quality and value, and deliver an experience worth returning to.
