Total Till sales at UK supermarkets rose to +3.2% in the last four weeks ending 1st November 2025, according to new data released today by NielsenIQ (NIQ). This is a marked slowdown from the +4.1% growth recorded in September, likely due to shoppers’ anticipation of seasonal savings and promotional days like Black Friday in the lead up to Christmas as well as the pressure on household finances from continued inflation.
As retail spend continues to slow amidst ongoing economic pressures, Black Friday at the end of November will be an even more important event to kickstart shopper spending. NIQ data shows that 45% of households1 took part in Black Friday last year and it is now regarded as one of the biggest online shopping days2 across both FMCG and wider e-commerce.
During Amazon Big Deals Day this year, personal care and beverages also saw a market share uplift as consumers looked to save on higher-priced items. This behaviour may also have taken the edge off some FMCG spend as the average spend per visit declined (-0.6%).3
With this in mind, across FMCG in the last four weeks the only super categories with unit growth were dairy (+1.6%), meat, fish and poultry (+1.4%) and fresh produce (+0.4%). In confectionary unit sales fell (-3.1%), despite Halloween being a typical time for shoppers to indulge in sweet treats, and the uplift (+4.4%)4 in value sales was primarily due to inflation.
NIQ data also shows that in-store visits were up (+3.9%) and comes as retailers continue to entice shoppers with price cuts from loyalty schemes, with the amount of the shopping basket purchased on promotion continuing to make up 24% of sales.
In terms of retailer performance, Ocado (+13.8%) remains the fastest growing retailer whilst Sainsbury’s (+5.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) continue to increase market share, widening the gap with Asda (where sales fell -6.5%) and Morrisons (+1.9%). Momentum continues to grow at a strong pace for Waitrose (+4.8%) and M&S (+9.6%).
Sales at Lidl (+10.7%) grew ahead of Aldi (+4.4%) with both retailers expected to maintain strong sales growth with more new stores opening in the last months of 2025.
Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, said: “The slowdown in growth in the last four weeks was not helped by continued inflation, fragile consumer confidence and a generally mild October and any discretionary spending power has not translated into extra food and drink sales at food retailers during the Halloween half term. And the mood music around possible tax rises in the November budget may not have helped sentiment either.”
Watkins adds: “The upside is that whilst shoppers are economising, they are not compromising. With a weakness in out of home spend, shoppers are likely to ‘dine in home’ more which means food retailers are likely to see strong growth in premium private label ranges in the next few weeks. NIQ see food sales growth continuing at current levels for the rest of November, but we expect sales to accelerate in early December and it will depend on the success of the current advertising campaigns to encourage shoppers to spend more, as well as the impact of Black Friday in diverting some spend.”
