Total Till sales growth slowed at UK supermarkets (+2.7%) in the last four weeks ending 23rd March 2025, down from (+4%) recorded in February, according to new data released today by NielsenIQ (NIQ).
This slowdown in growth is likely due to fewer celebratory events in March and shoppers delaying spending to enjoy the late Easter and Mother’s Day this year. While at the same time remaining cautious with their budgets in light of increasing household bills and food inflation rising (2.4% year-on-year) in March, up from 2.1% in February. 1
To prepare for the increase in household bills, consumers are looking for value for money and when surveyed, 47% of UK consumers said they purchase more Private Label than they ever have before and 75% of UK consumers say store brands are a good alternative to named brands. 2
As shoppers continue to search for the best prices and value, NIQ data shows that In-store visits rose (+6.8%) while sales growth in the online grocery channel slowed (+0.7%), continuing the downward trend seen since the start of 2025 and bringing its market share down to 12.9% compared to 13.2% this time last year. Spend per visit across all channels also dipped (-3.4%) to £19.10. 3
In terms of category data, over the last 4 weeks, sales of dairy products rose (+7.2%), alongside meat, fish and poultry (+5.9%). Warmer weather in March also saw sales of soft drinks grow (+6.8%), however, the late Easter and Mother’s Day saw confectionery sales fall (-16.7%) compared to the same time last year. Sales of beer, wine and spirits also fell (-4.3%) over the last four weeks. 4
Almost a quarter (24%) of all GB households shopped at M&S over the last four weeks, seeing the retailer maintain strong sales growth (+12.2%) with market share increasing to 3.9%, up from 3.6% a year ago. Ocado also saw growth (+17.1%) in market share over the last four weeks. Asda saw a decline (-6.0%) in sales over the last twelve weeks, which may reflect the impact of recent price cuts and the early stages of a new pricing strategy. Waitrose sales grew +3.4% with a healthy increase in new shoppers over the last 12 weeks. 3
Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NIQ, says: “Shopping behaviour continues to evolve, with consumers increasingly shopping around for the best prices and offers whilst looking to stretch budgets ahead of planned rises to essential bills at the start of April. This could be helping Discounters capture a greater share of the regular weekly shop. The channel now holds an 18.1% share of all FMCG sales in Q1—the highest in over two years—with an average spend per visit of £24.09.”
He adds: “Looking ahead, retailers have reasons to be optimistic this dip in sales won’t last. Sunnier weather at the start of April and the lead up to Easter will encourage extra spend which will then improve topline sales. We expect all retailers to keep an eye on the favourable start of spring.”
Table: 12-weekly % share of grocery market spend by retailer and value sales % change
