As NBC News reports tariffs have turned global trade into a “worldwide battlefield,” a new forecast indicates global trade may grow even when factoring retaliation to the proposed U.S. measures. Though notably increasing at a slower pace, the latest forecast is surprising yet encouraging for logistics operations navigating a difficult economic climate in 2025.
Reacting to the recent news, Jay Dhokia — founder of supply chain management company Pro3PL — provides advice to businesses looking to navigate the clouded picture ahead for the supply chain and logistics industry.
The story at a glance
Global trade is expected to grow at a compound rate of 3.1% over the next five years despite tariffs, but high uncertainty around major geopolitical shifts looms over the latest forecast.
Jay Dhokia, founder of Pro3PL, comments on the risks and challenges tariffs and trade wars impose on logistics and supply chain operations.
Taking a more positive outlook, Jay Dhokia also reveals essential advice for how the 3PL industry is mitigating the risk of uncertainty and maximizing the opportunity that may be arising.
Shipping and logistics expert Jay Dhokia, founder of supply chain management company Pro3PL, suggests tariffs are creating increased uncertainty and high levels of risk despite the recent positive growth forecast: “While there is a lot of optimism around the latest trade growth forecast from DHL, unprecedented levels of uncertainty cloud over the full picture. There is a strong likelihood that tariffs are being used tactically at a political level, though if these tariffs are imposed indefinitely then the effects of reshoring will have a seismic ripple effect on the global supply chain. Supply chain managers need to be diligent about the ongoing geopolitical shifts, planning tactfully for the extremes to avoid the pitfalls and adapt to the landscape that arises. Being aware of the scenarios and planning for them to navigate around disruption is a huge part of this. Some operations could become great beneficiaries of the new economic environment while others may be caught unprepared.
“When talking about tariffs, the consumer will often take the brunt of the measures. This will influence behavior and create new purchasing trends supply chains ought to be savvy to. A steep drop in demand for international products could occur simply because they’ve become too expensive for the average person or business to buy. As such operational efficiency through technology and re-negotiating contracts will become paramount for businesses to keep costs down and the supply chain moving. As such, we’re likely to see greater use of artificial intelligence across the supply chain to boost efficiency. There will be an increased reliance on demand forecasting models to follow real-time market trends and mitigate the risk of overstocking. Equally important is diversification. With the prospect of tariffs hitting certain industries such as steel, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles harder than others, the logistics industry will look to diversify its portfolio away from traditional trading partners.
“Early stockpiling among consumers is also a factor for supply chains to consider. Early stockpiling will likely be a key delivery challenge as businesses look to rapidly frontload and store international products across impacted territories before tariffs are implemented. This is a consideration that could place a great deal of pressure on existing operations. Elsewhere, some companies will have to rethink their long-established production locations and agreements, potentially creating long delays and holdups.
“The fallout of trade retaliation or a trade war is an extreme risk. Broader trade conflicts as a result of imposed tariffs amplify supply chain challenges on a global scale, creating an overall reduction in global trade and a new normal for the industry. It will be essential for supply chain and logistics operations to show a sense of resilience and adaptability in the face of potentially disruptive tariffs now and into the future. My advice is for businesses and supply chain managers to keep a watchful eye on the news as discussions around tariffs and how the geopolitical atmosphere develops.”
Tips to navigate geopolitical uncertainty as a supply chain manager
The DHL forecast shows that only 21% of the value of goods and services produced worldwide are consumed outside their country of origin. These findings indicate that there is a great deal of opportunity for supply chain growth if operations can navigate uncertainty.
Here are Dhokia’s five fundamental tips for navigating geopolitical uncertainty or disruption in the supply chain and embracing opportunity in 2025 and beyond:
Maintain strong communication with shipping partners: “Regular check-ins with key contacts and partners are essential,” says Jay Dhokia. “Assign a senior team member to monitor and respond to carrier updates, and consider creating a contingency plan with each partner too. In it, outline the actions to take should delay or disruption occur.”
Enhance demand forecasting technology: “While it’s impossible to predict the future, especially during periods of uncertainty, demand forecasting can allow supply chain managers to react to the changing market and core issues such as over or understocking. An emboldened focus on big data will help operations predict and anticipate disruption,” says Dhokia.
Explore AI for supply chain efficiency: “Heading into an uncertain future, artificial intelligence will be an anchor for supply chain management,” says Jay Dhokia. “Supply chain operations should up their game to adapt and make use of the technology. AI can support the reorganisation of the supply chain, reducing complexities and vulnerability to shock geopolitical disruption.”
Ensure real-time visibility over the whole supply chain: “Blind spots in the supply chain create unknown risk when potential disruptions occur,” says Dhokia. “Real-time visibility is already a cornerstone of modern logistics, but doubly so in times of uncertainty. Advanced tracking systems that deliver precise updates on shipment status, inventory levels, and delivery timelines are vital for internal planning and consumer confidence.”
Scenario plan to challenge the unpredictable: “Scenario planning is a priority for successfully navigating risk. Rather than reacting to changes as they happen, create a plan for major future possibilities from the best to the most extreme case. Think about how you foresee your operation reacting. What do you need in place to react quickly and effectively? Having these plans in place means they can be enacted right away and keep the supply chain moving forward and avoid the disruption,” says Dhokia.
