Retail sales volumes are estimated to have fallen by 0.4% in February 2026, following a rise of 2.0% in January 2026, and a rise of 0.1% in December 2025, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics. Supermarkets’ sales volumes fell back following a rise in January 2026. Non-store retailers’ volumes also fell in February, with retailers suggesting that consumers brought forward their spending to January 2026, to maximise on discounting during the period.
Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, said: “After a positive start to the year, February’s retail sales volumes fell as cold and wet weather deterred the purchasing of new seasonal items and reduced high street footfall. A fall in sales could also be a consequence of consumers spending more in January to take advantage of the sales period to secure the best value.
“As the prospect of rising inflation looms, consumers will likely continue to feel protective of their hard-earned cash. In order for them to part with it, whether that be on essentials or more discretionary items, retailers will need to work hard to engage and excite customers and demonstrate real value for money. Alongside this, retailers will need to experiment with new AI shopping experiences to keep pace with the changing shopping journey and attract the customers that are embracing new technologies.”
Kien Tan, senior retail advisor at PwC UK, said: “Retail sales in February 2026 saw a sharp slowdown compared with the post-Christmas rally we saw in January. Overall sales volumes excluding petrol rose by 3.4% compared with last February, which translates into 4.7% more pounds in retailers’ tills once inflation is taken into account.
“While the last three months as a whole was an improvement compared with the quarter in the run-up to the Budget at the end of November, February’s number represents a 0.4% volume decline compared with January.
“The seemingly never-ending rain for the first three weeks of the month dissuaded shoppers from both high streets – with footfall declining at its fastest rate for almost a year, according to the BRC – and seasonal purchases of home and garden products in particular.
“Not surprisingly given the wet weather, the proportion of retail sales online rose from 28.0% in January to 28.2% in February, almost 2 percentage points higher than the same time last year.
“Despite Valentine’s Day, the beginning of Lent, Ramadan and the Lunar New Year all coinciding in the middle of the month, grocery sales were disappointing in February, with volumes down 0.7% on January, and year-on-year sales growth only held up by inflation.
“February’s weakening retail performance was set against a backdrop of unchanged inflation and pre-dates the start of the Middle East conflict. There are already indications that the conflict is affecting consumer confidence, while retailers have also warned that a prolonged conflict is likely to lead to faster price rises.
“With the cost-of-living already shoppers’ single biggest concern and causing almost three-quarters to rethink their spending according to our research, any further increases in the prices of day-to-day goods will not be welcomed by consumers and retailers alike. So, while we remain optimistic that there could be a recovery in retail in the second half of 2026, the sector will be waiting with bated breath for a swift resolution to the current global instability.”
Shopify’s managing director, EMEA, Deann Evans, said: “Retailers will be disappointed to see a slowdown in February sales following a rise in January. This is perhaps indicative of ongoing pressures on household finances as consumers remain selective in their spending. In fact, our Holiday Retail Report found 16% of UK consumers noted their spending around the festive shopping period makes the start of the following year harder.
“Sales fell despite a Valentine’s Day boost, where roses (+122.3%), tulips (+101.1%), and chocolate (+16.4%) all saw growth. This highlights that consumers still spend on meaningful occasions – an important cue for retailers to align with key cultural moments.
“Shopify data also illustrated a shift in consumer attention towards the outdoors, with large increases in sales across gardening, outdoor living and camping. Amongst the highest risers were riding mowers (+132.6%), pop-up tents (+64.9%) and outdoor umbrellas (+76.2%).
“This is encouraging for the months ahead as the weather improves, clocks go forward, and Easter bank holidays arrive, offering retailers an opportunity to re-engage with consumers who are driven by seasonal motivators. To set themselves up for success, merchants must ensure they deliver value, convenience, and best-in-class customer experiences across every shopping surface.
Sergey Kondratyuk, partner at McKinsey & Company, comments: “Poor weather may have played a role in February’s weaker retail sales, but the bigger issue is that underlying demand still looks fragile. Our latest consumer research * shows 52% of UK consumers continue to cite inflation as a top concern, and only 23% are optimistic about economic conditions.
“The pressure is also clear in planned spending. In the UK, 50% of consumers say they expect to spend less on furniture over the next three months, versus just 15% who expect to spend more, with similar patterns across apparel and home electronics. That suggests this is about more than a one-month weather effect, but instead a broad-based volume recovery still has not emerged.
““The proportion of sales made online rose to 28.2% in February 2026. Some of this shift to online purchasing can be attributed to the growing adoption of AI-shaped shopping journeys, where consumers are looking online for advice on purchasing decisions.”
“For retailers, the implication is clear: growth will have to come from winning real demand back through sharper value, relevance and execution. And, from being visible and compelling in AI-shaped shopping journeys, not from price alone.
*Data taken from An update on European consumer sentiment, published March 9th, 2026
