Retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.5% in September 2025, following an increase of 0.6% in August 2025 (revised up from a 0.5% rise in our previous bulletin), according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. Computer and telecommunications retailers’ sales volumes grew strongly alongside continued growth among non-store retailers, where online jewellers reported strong demand for gold.
Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, said: “The unexpected rise in retail sales in September will be a positive boost for retailers, particularly when combined with the uplift of 0.9% in sales volumes in the three months to September.
“There are signs that big ticket purchases are back on the cards for some, with an uptick in the sale of tech like computers and phones, as well as household goods and furniture. This indicates that budgeting for major purchases is becoming more of a priority for consumers.
“Meanwhile, food sales volumes fell as food inflation ate away at consumer’s appetite to spend on essentials. Our research shows that almost half (46%) of consumers bought more food and drink on discount or sale in the last quarter in order to combat higher prices.
“With the Golden Quarter in full swing, retailers will be launching a variety of products and ensuring good stock availability to entice further consumer spending. While many businesses are cautious about making investment decisions amid a mixed macroeconomic picture, these results will be encouraging. A sustained recovery in consumer confidence will be key for both retailers and consumers to feel emboldened to spend more.”
“With a consistent few months of growth in UK retail sales, optimism will be high heading into peak shopping season. Indeed, according to our new Holiday Retail Report, 80% of UK businesses are expecting higher sales this holiday shopping season compared to last year. Consumer confidence is also strong, with planned seasonal spend in the UK up from £159 last year to £181 in 2025.
“However, retailers shouldn’t mistake this for unlimited consumer appetite. Almost two thirds of UK consumers (63%) have set a clear spending cap and 39% will stick to it closely. Retailers that pair sharp pricing with great service, personalised loyalty, and a fast, reliable checkout will win share and loyalty now, and set themselves up for growth into the New Year.”
Erin Brookes, European retail and consumer lead at Alvarez & Marsal, said: “Retailers have maintained strong momentum with the fourth consecutive month of retail sales growth in September, a positive indicator ahead of the all-important golden quarter. Back-to-school spending and early seasonal promotions helped drive in-store and online activity, with non-food and household goods categories performing particularly well. This comes despite rising food inflation and cost pressure on household budgets.
“This sustained growth underlines the sector’s resilience, but the months ahead bring renewed uncertainty. Speculation around potential tax rises in the November Budget risks denting consumer confidence just as peak trading begins to loom on the horizon.
“To build on recent gains, retailers should focus on sharpening value propositions and maintaining operational agility. Well-timed, targeted promotions and disciplined cost management will be vital to capturing demand, protecting margins, and staying resilient through this pivotal trading period.”
