Eleanor Simpson-Gould, senior retail analyst at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, offers her view: “Carrefour delivered a broadly stable H1 performance, with moderate growth across its core French and European divisions benefiting from stabilising food inflation. Group like-for-like sales rose 3.7%, boosted by a 4.4% increase in Q2, driven by volume recovery in Europe and the continued strengthening of its Latin America region, where sales rose 10.9%. Carrefour has maintained its guidance of slight growth in EBITDA and ROI, despite this more positive H1 performance. This signals a cautious outlook from the retailer, particularly as its recurring operating margin declined by 0.2ppts to 1.6% versus H1 2024. The fall in margin suggests that, while sales increased, higher operational costs and pricing pressure limited profit improvement. Carrefour is preparing for a challenging second half, where subdued consumer confidence is likely to dampen sales. Yet it must be careful to balance momentum on crucial price cuts essential to retaining its appeal and volume growth without eroding margins further.
“Carrefour confirmed the sale of its Italian operations, which weighed on its European performance after a 2.6% drop in FY2024. Carrefour did not secure a niche in a market favouring local grocers and discounters. The sale should close by year-end and let Carrefour focus on Brazil, Spain, and France, where it has more scale and pricing power. Furthermore, the Italian divestment raises questions about cutbacks in Poland, where sales in FY2024 and into H1 of FY2025 also lagged. Given the dominance of Biedronka in this market and discount players such as Lidl, Carrefour is experiencing the same mismatch in market dynamics witnessed in Italy. Carrefour struggles to compete on price with discounters. Price reductions may help in the short term to appeal to consumers in Poland trading down.
“Carrefour’s 2026 strategy to future-proof itself as an omnichannel grocer gained momentum in H1. Group ecommerce sales rose 16%, led by its Brazil operations, which grew 36% in Q2. As France and Spain lag in ecommerce, Carrefour should focus on value for money, using its private label ranges, while increasing multibuy offers to boost online volumes. In these key European markets, Carrefour’s dense store network could support wider click & collect rollout, appealing to busy shoppers and strengthening its omnichannel presence beyond home delivery.”
